{"id":36866,"date":"2023-10-10T08:48:42","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T13:48:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/?p=36866"},"modified":"2023-10-10T08:49:28","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T13:49:28","slug":"europe-and-central-asia-economic-update-fall-2023-sluggish-growth-rising-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/es_co\/tendencias\/europe-and-central-asia-economic-update-fall-2023-sluggish-growth-rising-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2023: Sluggish Growth, Rising Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"36866\" class=\"elementor elementor-36866\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-87c6aa2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"87c6aa2\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-558bb819\" data-id=\"558bb819\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3067325c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3067325c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.14.0 - 26-06-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<div class=\"OutlineElement Ltr BCX9 SCXO44705505\" style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; -webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; overflow: visible; cursor: text; clear: both; position: relative; direction: ltr; font-family: 'Segoe UI', 'Segoe UI Web', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;\"><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">Europa y Asia Central (EAC) siguen vi\u00e9ndose afectadas negativamente por la invasi\u00f3n de Ucrania por parte de la Federaci\u00f3n Rusa, el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras mundiales, la inflaci\u00f3n galopante y la fragmentaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica mundial. El crecimiento mundial a cinco a\u00f1os para 2020-24 es el m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil en tres d\u00e9cadas, lo que refleja una d\u00e9bil recuperaci\u00f3n en China y una fuerte desaceleraci\u00f3n en la zona del euro, el mayor socio comercial de la CEPA. Los aumentos sincronizados de los tipos de inter\u00e9s oficiales en las econom\u00edas avanzadas y en desarrollo se han traducido en un aumento de los rendimientos y los diferenciales de los bonos, un menor acceso al mercado y una menor disponibilidad de cr\u00e9dito. La inflaci\u00f3n ha retrocedido en parte en la CEPA, a medida que los precios mundiales de los productos b\u00e1sicos han bajado desde los m\u00e1ximos del a\u00f1o pasado, aunque la desinflaci\u00f3n se ralentiz\u00f3 durante el verano y los ingresos reales a\u00fan no se han recuperado de la crisis del coste de la vida de 2022. En este dif\u00edcil entorno, se prev\u00e9 que el crecimiento de la CEPA siga siendo d\u00e9bil en relaci\u00f3n con la media a largo plazo anterior a la pandemia. Aunque la previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento regional se ha mejorado hasta el 2,4% para 2023, desde el 1,4% previsto en junio, la divergencia dentro de la regi\u00f3n se ha ampliado, ya que las previsiones de crecimiento se han mantenido sin cambios o se han rebajado para cerca de la mitad de los pa\u00edses de la CEPA. En el caso de Turqu\u00eda, se prev\u00e9 que el crecimiento aumente hasta el 4,2% en 2023, frente al 3,2% previsto en junio, debido a la resistencia del consumo de los hogares y a la reducci\u00f3n de la incertidumbre pol\u00edtica. Esto \u00faltimo refleja las medidas positivas adoptadas por las autoridades para normalizar las pol\u00edticas macroecon\u00f3micas tras las elecciones de mayo de 2023. En el caso de Rusia, el aumento del gasto p\u00fablico, destinado en gran medida a la consolidaci\u00f3n militar y las transferencias sociales, junto con un mayor crecimiento del cr\u00e9dito, ha llevado a una revisi\u00f3n al alza de las previsiones de crecimiento. Tambi\u00e9n se han revisado al alza las previsiones de crecimiento para la mayor\u00eda de las econom\u00edas del C\u00e1ucaso meridional y Asia central, dado que estos pa\u00edses absorbieron una importante afluencia de inmigrantes, empresas, comercio y flujos monetarios durante el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o y medio. Esta evoluci\u00f3n impuls\u00f3 el crecimiento de la demanda interna y la producci\u00f3n y favoreci\u00f3 la apreciaci\u00f3n de la moneda y la reducci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">En Europa del Este, que ha sufrido los efectos m\u00e1s negativos de la invasi\u00f3n de Ucrania, el crecimiento se est\u00e1 recuperando gradualmente. Tras un fuerte descenso en 2022, la producci\u00f3n ha aumentado este a\u00f1o en Ucrania gracias a un suministro el\u00e9ctrico m\u00e1s estable y a un mayor gasto p\u00fablico. Sin embargo, las condiciones econ\u00f3micas en el pa\u00eds siguen siendo extremadamente dif\u00edciles debido a la escalada de los riesgos de seguridad, los da\u00f1os adicionales a la infraestructura, la renovada presi\u00f3n al alza sobre los precios de la energ\u00eda y las limitaciones de capacidad en las rutas de transporte de cereales a los mercados internacionales. Por el contrario, se espera que el crecimiento en Europa Central y los Balcanes Occidentales sea m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil, como consecuencia de la fuerte ralentizaci\u00f3n de la actividad en la zona del euro, la lenta recuperaci\u00f3n de los ingresos reales y la rigidez de las condiciones financieras. Se prev\u00e9 que el crecimiento medio anual de la CEPA se mantenga sin grandes cambios en el 2,6% durante 2024-25, debido a los continuos efectos negativos de la invasi\u00f3n de Ucrania por Rusia, la d\u00e9bil expansi\u00f3n en la zona del euro y el lento avance de las reformas estructurales. Se prev\u00e9 que el crecimiento en Rusia siga siendo d\u00e9bil, de s\u00f3lo el 1,1% anual de media durante 2024-25, frenado por las limitaciones de capacidad, la rigidez de los mercados laborales y la falta de acceso a la tecnolog\u00eda y los equipos debido a las sanciones. Tambi\u00e9n se espera que el crecimiento en Turqu\u00eda se ralentice durante el periodo de previsi\u00f3n, ya que la normalizaci\u00f3n de la pol\u00edtica monetaria y la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal enfriar\u00e1n la demanda interna. Los riesgos para las perspectivas difieren seg\u00fan los pa\u00edses, aunque en general apuntan a la baja. La inflaci\u00f3n puede persistir debido al aumento de los costes laborales, la mayor volatilidad de los mercados mundiales de materias primas y la reciente subida de los precios mundiales de la energ\u00eda. El crecimiento mundial podr\u00eda sorprender a la baja, provocando una recuperaci\u00f3n de las exportaciones m\u00e1s lenta de lo previsto. Un per\u00edodo prolongado de condiciones financieras restrictivas podr\u00eda desencadenar nuevos episodios de volatilidad en los mercados financieros mundiales y poner a prueba la resistencia de los sistemas financieros de la CEPA. La persistente debilidad econ\u00f3mica de las econom\u00edas regionales y la elevada incertidumbre pol\u00edtica podr\u00edan debilitar a\u00fan m\u00e1s el impulso reformista y retrasar la necesaria transici\u00f3n ecol\u00f3gica.<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">\u00a0<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">El informe destaca un panorama econ\u00f3mico desafiante en la regi\u00f3n, caracterizado por un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico lento y crecientes riesgos. A pesar de cierta recuperaci\u00f3n tras la pandemia, la regi\u00f3n de Europa y Asia Central se enfrenta a obst\u00e1culos persistentes, como la incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica, la inflaci\u00f3n en aumento y la escasez de suministros. Adem\u00e1s, se destaca la necesidad de pol\u00edticas macroecon\u00f3micas s\u00f3lidas y reformas estructurales para abordar estos desaf\u00edos y promover un crecimiento sostenible en la regi\u00f3n.<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Segoe UI', 'Segoe UI Web', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;\">Para leer m\u00e1s ingrese a:<\/span><\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/entities\/publication\/8ae7bcc5-2cac-48bd-b263-e211418e2972\">https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/entities\/publication\/8ae7bcc5-2cac-48bd-b263-e211418e2972<\/a><\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/bitstreams\/ec2a6e41-517a-4977-9ead-c1fc21529903\/download\">https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/bitstreams\/ec2a6e41-517a-4977-9ead-c1fc21529903\/download <\/a><\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div style=\"text-align:center\" class=\"yasr-auto-insert-visitor\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El siguiente informe destaca un panorama econ\u00f3mico desafiante en la regi\u00f3n, caracterizado por un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico lento y crecientes riesgos. A pesar de cierta recuperaci\u00f3n tras la pandemia, la regi\u00f3n de Europa y Asia Central se enfrenta a obst\u00e1culos persistentes, como la incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica, la inflaci\u00f3n en aumento y la escasez de suministros. Adem\u00e1s, se destaca la necesidad de pol\u00edticas macroecon\u00f3micas s\u00f3lidas y reformas estructurales para abordar estos desaf\u00edos y promover un crecimiento sostenible en la regi\u00f3n.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":36867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[56,53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-convergencia-y-sostenibilidad","category-tendencias"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2023: Sluggish Growth, Rising Risks - Colombia Inteligente<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/es_co\/tendencias\/europe-and-central-asia-economic-update-fall-2023-sluggish-growth-rising-risks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2023: Sluggish Growth, Rising Risks - Colombia Inteligente\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El siguiente informe destaca un panorama econ\u00f3mico desafiante en la regi\u00f3n, caracterizado por un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico lento y crecientes riesgos. A pesar de cierta recuperaci\u00f3n tras la pandemia, la regi\u00f3n de Europa y Asia Central se enfrenta a obst\u00e1culos persistentes, como la incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica, la inflaci\u00f3n en aumento y la escasez de suministros. 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