{"id":36908,"date":"2023-10-10T10:08:18","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T15:08:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/?p=36908"},"modified":"2023-10-10T10:08:58","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T15:08:58","slug":"final-technical-report-impact-of-wildfires-on-solar-generation-reserves-and-energy-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/es_co\/tendencias\/final-technical-report-impact-of-wildfires-on-solar-generation-reserves-and-energy-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Final Technical Report: Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves, and Energy Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"36908\" class=\"elementor elementor-36908\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-87c6aa2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"87c6aa2\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-558bb819\" data-id=\"558bb819\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3067325c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3067325c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.14.0 - 26-06-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<div class=\"OutlineElement Ltr BCX9 SCXO44705505\" style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; -webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; overflow: visible; cursor: text; clear: both; position: relative; direction: ltr; font-family: 'Segoe UI', 'Segoe UI Web', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;\"><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">En el verano y principios del oto\u00f1o de 2020, grandes incendios forestales arrasaron partes del norte de California, quemaron m\u00e1s de 1 mill\u00f3n de acres y produjeron espesas capas de humo que cubrieron grandes partes del estado. Aunque 2020 fue un a\u00f1o \u00fanico en las \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, en t\u00e9rminos de superficie quemada, los grandes incendios forestales y las temporadas de incendios m\u00e1s largas son cada vez m\u00e1s comunes con el cambio clim\u00e1tico. Las espesas capas de humo en la atm\u00f3sfera pueden atenuar significativamente la radiaci\u00f3n solar que llega a los paneles solares, y reducir significativamente la electricidad generada a partir de esos paneles. La actividad de los incendios forestales ha ido en aumento durante las \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas en Estados Unidos, y tambi\u00e9n ha aumentado la importancia de considerar los efectos de los incendios forestales en la calidad del aire y la generaci\u00f3n solar. En este estudio, se cuantifica el impacto potencial de los incendios forestales en la red el\u00e9ctrica de California. Espec\u00edficamente, se estudian los impactos bajo tres escenarios diferentes de incendios forestales &#8211; un escenario \u00absin incendios forestales\u00bb y dos escenarios espec\u00edficos de incendios forestales, \u00abincendios forestales 2020\u00bb e \u00abincendios forestales reforzados\u00bb. A continuaci\u00f3n, se combinan cada uno de los escenarios con dos a\u00f1os de infraestructura de energ\u00eda solar, uno correspondiente a los niveles actuales de despliegue solar y otro correspondiente al futuro. El an\u00e1lisis sugiere que los incendios forestales pueden atenuar significativamente la radiaci\u00f3n solar tanto a corta distancia a sotavento como lejos de las fuentes de emisi\u00f3n. La generaci\u00f3n fotovoltaica mensual disminuy\u00f3 en un 7,7% con los niveles actuales de despliegue solar, con posibles reducciones adicionales del 0,4% y el 1,3% en los escenarios de incendios forestales intensificados y mayor despliegue fotovoltaico. Aunque el impacto de los incendios forestales en la generaci\u00f3n fotovoltaica es relativamente peque\u00f1o (~10% de reducci\u00f3n, con la fotovoltaica representando el 36% de la capacidad total instalada en 2036), no es insignificante. El an\u00e1lisis sugiere que el impacto de los incendios forestales en las necesidades de reservas es mucho m\u00e1s pronunciado. El escenario de incendios forestales de 2020 y el escenario de incendios forestales intensificados provocan un aumento de las necesidades mensuales de reservas del 53% y el 64%, respectivamente. Estos niveles de reducci\u00f3n de la generaci\u00f3n fotovoltaica y de aumento de las necesidades de reserva podr\u00edan aumentar el precio medio de la electricidad en el futuro si se repitiera una situaci\u00f3n de incendios forestales similar a la de 2020. Tambi\u00e9n es de esperar que se produzca un impacto mucho mayor en la volatilidad de los precios.<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">\u00a0<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">Aunque el an\u00e1lisis tiene un alcance limitado y el estudio s\u00f3lo tiene en cuenta algunos de los muchos factores que pueden afectar a la generaci\u00f3n fotovoltaica y a los mercados el\u00e9ctricos, hay claros indicios de que el humo de los incendios forestales es un factor importante que debe tenerse muy en cuenta y analizarse a la hora de planificar la futura red. Los incendios forestales tienen una influencia sustancial en la carga de aerosoles atmosf\u00e9ricos y en la radiaci\u00f3n solar, puesto que cantidades significativas de aerosoles de humo emitidos por la actividad de los incendios forestales pueden atenuar la radiaci\u00f3n solar por absorci\u00f3n y dispersi\u00f3n. Este efecto afecta directamente a la generaci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda solar durante los episodios de incendios. Esta reducci\u00f3n sustancial de la disponibilidad de recursos solares podr\u00eda introducir incertidumbres y aumentar las vulnerabilidades del mercado de la energ\u00eda solar. A medida que aumenta la actividad de los incendios forestales, resulta cada vez m\u00e1s crucial comprender el impacto sobre la disponibilidad de energ\u00eda solar y las necesidades de reserva, especialmente en escenarios de modelizaci\u00f3n de alta penetraci\u00f3n de la energ\u00eda solar. Por lo tanto, la estimaci\u00f3n precisa del impacto de los incendios forestales es necesaria para tomar decisiones informadas sobre la planificaci\u00f3n de las reservas, la programaci\u00f3n de la generaci\u00f3n y las inversiones en confiabilidad. El objetivo de este proyecto es cuantificar el impacto de los cambios provocados por los incendios forestales en la carga de aerosoles atmosf\u00e9ricos y, por tanto, en la disponibilidad de energ\u00eda solar, los servicios auxiliares y los precios de mercado de la energ\u00eda. Esta evaluaci\u00f3n incluye tanto un an\u00e1lisis hist\u00f3rico como una estimaci\u00f3n de la disponibilidad futura de recursos solares bajo diferentes escenarios de incendios forestales y penetraci\u00f3n solar. Se espera que el estudio del impacto de los incendios forestales en la generaci\u00f3n solar, la reserva y los precios de la energ\u00eda proporcione informaci\u00f3n \u00fatil a los operadores del sistema.<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">\u00a0<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\">El informe examina en detalle c\u00f3mo los incendios forestales afectan la generaci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda solar, las reservas energ\u00e9ticas y los precios de la energ\u00eda. El estudio revel\u00f3 que los incendios forestales tienen un impacto significativo en la generaci\u00f3n solar al reducir la producci\u00f3n debido a la obstrucci\u00f3n de la radiaci\u00f3n solar y el da\u00f1o a las instalaciones. Esto, a su vez, puede aumentar la demanda de energ\u00eda de respaldo y, en consecuencia, elevar los precios de la energ\u00eda, lo que plantea desaf\u00edos importantes para la gesti\u00f3n de la red el\u00e9ctrica y la sostenibilidad energ\u00e9tica en \u00e1reas propensas a incendios forestales.<\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Segoe UI', 'Segoe UI Web', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;\">Para leer m\u00e1s ingrese a:<\/span><\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/research\/publications.html\">https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/research\/publications.html<\/a><\/p><p style=\"margin: 0in; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11.0pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy23osti\/86640.pdf\">https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy23osti\/86640.pdf <\/a><\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div style=\"text-align:center\" class=\"yasr-auto-insert-visitor\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El siguiente informe examina en detalle c\u00f3mo los incendios forestales afectan la generaci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda solar, las reservas energ\u00e9ticas y los precios de la energ\u00eda. El estudio revel\u00f3 que los incendios forestales tienen un impacto significativo en la generaci\u00f3n solar al reducir la producci\u00f3n debido a la obstrucci\u00f3n de la radiaci\u00f3n solar y el da\u00f1o a las instalaciones. Esto, a su vez, puede aumentar la demanda de energ\u00eda de respaldo y, en consecuencia, elevar los precios de la energ\u00eda, lo que plantea desaf\u00edos importantes para la gesti\u00f3n de la red el\u00e9ctrica y la sostenibilidad energ\u00e9tica en \u00e1reas propensas a incendios forestales.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":36909,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[54,53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energia-que-transforma","category-tendencias"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Final Technical Report: Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves, and Energy Prices - Colombia Inteligente<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/es_co\/tendencias\/final-technical-report-impact-of-wildfires-on-solar-generation-reserves-and-energy-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Final Technical Report: Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves, and Energy Prices - Colombia Inteligente\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El siguiente informe examina en detalle c\u00f3mo los incendios forestales afectan la generaci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda solar, las reservas energ\u00e9ticas y los precios de la energ\u00eda. El estudio revel\u00f3 que los incendios forestales tienen un impacto significativo en la generaci\u00f3n solar al reducir la producci\u00f3n debido a la obstrucci\u00f3n de la radiaci\u00f3n solar y el da\u00f1o a las instalaciones. Esto, a su vez, puede aumentar la demanda de energ\u00eda de respaldo y, en consecuencia, elevar los precios de la energ\u00eda, lo que plantea desaf\u00edos importantes para la gesti\u00f3n de la red el\u00e9ctrica y la sostenibilidad energ\u00e9tica en \u00e1reas propensas a incendios forestales.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/es_co\/tendencias\/final-technical-report-impact-of-wildfires-on-solar-generation-reserves-and-energy-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Colombia Inteligente\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-10-10T15:08:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-10-10T15:08:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Final-Technical-Report-Impact-of-Wildfires-on-Solar-Generation-Reserves-and-Energy-Prices.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"447\" 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