{"id":76371,"date":"2026-10-05T14:23:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T19:23:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/?p=76371"},"modified":"2026-10-05T14:25:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T19:25:36","slug":"has-rapid-capacity-expansion-in-the-solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-supply-chain-led-to-surplus-production","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/es_co\/tendencias\/convergencia-y-sostenibilidad\/has-rapid-capacity-expansion-in-the-solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-supply-chain-led-to-surplus-production\/","title":{"rendered":"Has rapid capacity expansion in the solar photovoltaic manufacturing supply chain led to surplus production?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"76371\" class=\"elementor elementor-76371\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-87c6aa2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"87c6aa2\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-558bb819\" data-id=\"558bb819\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3067325c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3067325c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.14.0 - 26-06-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p lang=\"es-MX\">La capacidad global de fabricaci\u00f3n de m\u00f3dulos solares alcanz\u00f3 en 2024 entre 1.100 y 1.350 GW, m\u00e1s del doble de las instalaciones anuales mundiales. China concentra la mayor parte de esa capacidad: alrededor del 78 % de m\u00f3dulos, 87 % de celdas, 97 % de obleas de silicio y 86 % de polisilicio. Esa escala, combinada con un crecimiento de la demanda m\u00e1s lento, ha intensificado la competencia de precios y ha llevado a p\u00e9rdidas financieras en varios fabricantes l\u00edderes. Sin embargo, sobrecapacidad de fabricaci\u00f3n y sobreproducci\u00f3n efectiva no son lo mismo. La primera implica capacidad instalada superior a la demanda y tasas de utilizaci\u00f3n bajas; la segunda implica producci\u00f3n real que supera la demanda y genera acumulaci\u00f3n sostenida de inventarios no vendidos.<\/p><p lang=\"es-MX\">\u00a0<\/p><p lang=\"es-MX\">El an\u00e1lisis se limita a la relaci\u00f3n entre producci\u00f3n, exportaci\u00f3n e instalaciones dom\u00e9sticas en China, sin evaluar dumping ni efectos en mercados importadores. Se calcula la oferta dom\u00e9stica disponible como producci\u00f3n anual menos exportaciones, y se modela la demanda impl\u00edcita desplazando las instalaciones hacia atr\u00e1s entre 1 y 12 meses para capturar el ciclo de compra, construcci\u00f3n y conexi\u00f3n a red. Una b\u00fasqueda en malla identifica un lead time \u00f3ptimo de seis a siete meses. Con ese desfase, el desbalance acumulado entre 2015 y 2023 se reduce de 142,9 GW a 29,4 GW, una ca\u00edda cercana al 79 %, y los residuales fluct\u00faan en torno a cero, lo que indica alineaci\u00f3n temporal m\u00e1s que sobreproducci\u00f3n sistem\u00e1tica de m\u00f3dulos.<\/p><p lang=\"es-MX\">\u00a0<\/p><p lang=\"es-MX\">Las presiones de inventario se concentran en el origen de la cadena de suministro. El polisilicio, intensivo en capital y lento para ajustar producci\u00f3n, enfrent\u00f3 ca\u00eddas de precio desde cerca de 30 d\u00f3lares por kilogramo hasta por debajo de 10 d\u00f3lares, con inventarios estimados en 350.000 toneladas a finales de 2024. En contraste, la fabricaci\u00f3n de m\u00f3dulos responde de forma m\u00e1s directa a pedidos confirmados y contratos de compra, por lo que permanece m\u00e1s ajustada a la demanda. Las perspectivas de la industria confirman que, tras ajustes de producci\u00f3n de polisilicio en 2024, el segmento de obleas de silicio tambi\u00e9n limpi\u00f3 inventarios, mientras celdas y m\u00f3dulos se mantuvieron ligados a ventas efectivas.<\/p><p lang=\"es-MX\">\u00a0<\/p><p lang=\"es-MX\">La conclusi\u00f3n central es que la sobrecapacidad manufacturera no implica necesariamente un exceso persistente de m\u00f3dulos sin vender en el mercado chino. Las aparentes brechas anuales se explican en buena medida por diferencias de timing entre fabricaci\u00f3n, exportaci\u00f3n, compra de proyectos y conexi\u00f3n a red. El trabajo no eval\u00faa las implicaciones comerciales internacionales de la capacidad china, pero aporta evidencia de que, en el segmento de m\u00f3dulos, la producci\u00f3n se ha mantenido en gran parte alineada con la demanda una vez se incorpora el lead time de los proyectos.<\/p><p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><b>Para leer m\u00e1s ingrese a:<\/b><\/span><\/p><p lang=\"es-MX\"><a href=\"https:\/\/files.wri.org\/d8\/s3fs-public\/2026-09\/has-rapid-capacity-expansion-in-the-solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-supply-chain-led-to-surplus-production.pdf\">https:\/\/files.wri.org\/d8\/s3fs-public\/2026-09\/has-rapid-capacity-expansion-in-the-solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-supply-chain-led-to-surplus-production.pdf<\/a><\/p><p lang=\"es-MX\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wri.org\/research\/has-rapid-capacity-expansion-solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-supply-chain-led-surplus\">https:\/\/www.wri.org\/research\/has-rapid-capacity-expansion-solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-supply-chain-led-surplus<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div style=\"text-align:center\" class=\"yasr-auto-insert-visitor\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La r\u00e1pida expansi\u00f3n de la capacidad mundial de fabricaci\u00f3n de m\u00f3dulos fotovoltaicos ha generado preocupaci\u00f3n por un posible exceso de producci\u00f3n y acumulaci\u00f3n de inventarios. Al centrarse en el mercado interno de China, este estudio no encuentra evidencia de acumulaci\u00f3n persistente de m\u00f3dulos sin vender. Con datos de producci\u00f3n, exportaci\u00f3n e instalaci\u00f3n de 2015 a 2024, y un an\u00e1lisis de tiempos de entrega que incorpora los ciclos de compra y construcci\u00f3n de proyectos, se muestra que gran parte de la brecha aparente entre fabricaci\u00f3n y despliegue refleja el lead time entre producci\u00f3n e instalaci\u00f3n, no una sobreproducci\u00f3n sostenida. Los inventarios excesivos se concentran en segmentos upstream como el polisilicio, mientras que la producci\u00f3n de m\u00f3dulos permanece alineada con la demanda. Se distingue entre capacidad, sobrecapacidad, baja utilizaci\u00f3n y sobreproducci\u00f3n real.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":76372,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[56,53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-convergencia-y-sostenibilidad","category-tendencias"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Has rapid capacity expansion in the solar photovoltaic manufacturing supply chain led to surplus production? - Colombia Inteligente<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/es_co\/tendencias\/convergencia-y-sostenibilidad\/has-rapid-capacity-expansion-in-the-solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-supply-chain-led-to-surplus-production\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has rapid capacity expansion in the solar photovoltaic manufacturing supply chain led to surplus production? - Colombia Inteligente\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La r\u00e1pida expansi\u00f3n de la capacidad mundial de fabricaci\u00f3n de m\u00f3dulos fotovoltaicos ha generado preocupaci\u00f3n por un posible exceso de producci\u00f3n y acumulaci\u00f3n de inventarios. Al centrarse en el mercado interno de China, este estudio no encuentra evidencia de acumulaci\u00f3n persistente de m\u00f3dulos sin vender. Con datos de producci\u00f3n, exportaci\u00f3n e instalaci\u00f3n de 2015 a 2024, y un an\u00e1lisis de tiempos de entrega que incorpora los ciclos de compra y construcci\u00f3n de proyectos, se muestra que gran parte de la brecha aparente entre fabricaci\u00f3n y despliegue refleja el lead time entre producci\u00f3n e instalaci\u00f3n, no una sobreproducci\u00f3n sostenida. Los inventarios excesivos se concentran en segmentos upstream como el polisilicio, mientras que la producci\u00f3n de m\u00f3dulos permanece alineada con la demanda. 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- Colombia Inteligente","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/colombiainteligente.org\/es_co\/tendencias\/convergencia-y-sostenibilidad\/has-rapid-capacity-expansion-in-the-solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-supply-chain-led-to-surplus-production\/","og_locale":"es_ES","og_type":"article","og_title":"Has rapid capacity expansion in the solar photovoltaic manufacturing supply chain led to surplus production? - Colombia Inteligente","og_description":"La r\u00e1pida expansi\u00f3n de la capacidad mundial de fabricaci\u00f3n de m\u00f3dulos fotovoltaicos ha generado preocupaci\u00f3n por un posible exceso de producci\u00f3n y acumulaci\u00f3n de inventarios. 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