he Global Energy Perspective 2023  models the outlook for demand and supply of energy commodities across a 1.5°C pathway, aligned with the Paris Agreement, and four bottom-up energy transition scenarios. These energy transition scenarios examine outcomes ranging from warming of 1.6°C to 2.9°C by 2100 (scenario descriptions outlined below in sidebar “About the Global Energy Perspective 2023”). These wide-ranging scenarios sketch a range of outcomes based on varying underlying assumptions—for example, about the pace of technological progress and the level of policy enforcement. The scenarios are shaped by more than 400 drivers across sectors, technologies, policies, costs, and fuels, and serve as a fact base to inform decision makers on the challenges to be overcome to enable the energy transition. In this article, we dive into the investments and advancements needed to both meet the world’s growing power demand and strive for a decarbonized energy system.

Power demand is projected to climb across scenarios due to several factors that are likely to differ by region, including the growth in emerging markets’ energy needs, electrification across the global economy (particularly in transport), and rising green hydrogen demand. The share of renewables in the global power mix could more than double in the next 20 years, and a boost in flexible capacity may be needed to ensure security of supply.

While significant growth in renewables is projected, clean firm power generation¹ (including from CCUS, nuclear, and hydrogen) is projected to increase in the long term across scenarios.

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