Global Energy Perspective 2023: Transition bottlenecks and unlocks

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The Global Energy Perspective 2023 models the outlook for demand and supply of energy commodities across a 1.5°C pathway, aligned with the Paris Agreement, and four bottom-up energy transition scenarios. These energy transition scenarios examine outcomes ranging from warming of 1.6°C to 2.9°C by 2100 (scenario descriptions outlined below in sidebar “About the Global Energy Perspective 2023”). These wide-ranging scenarios sketch a range of outcomes based on varying underlying assumptions—for example, about the pace of technological progress and the level of policy enforcement. The scenarios are shaped by more than 400 drivers across sectors, technologies, policies, costs, and fuels, and serve as a fact base to inform decision makers on the challenges to be overcome to enable the energy transition. In this article, we examine key bottlenecks that may need to be overcome for the energy transition, as well as the opportunities they could bring.

As economies recover from the recent energy crisis, there is opportunity to reflect on the progress of the energy transition. For example, 2023 saw strong growth in the build-out of multiple low-carbon technologies for energy production and consumption. Despite uncertainties including price spikes, volatility, and security of supply, the uptake in solar photovoltaic (PV), electric vehicles (EVs), and electric heat pumps was higher than ever before, and the expansion of wind capacity in 2022 was the third highest on record (after 2020 and 2021), despite significant challenges in the industry, particularly in offshore wind. Five low-carbon technologies are projected to be critical for the energy transition: solar, wind, EVs, heat pumps, and green hydrogen. These belong to a larger family of climate technologies needed to deliver a deep decarbonization of the whole economy.

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