he United States is currently experiencing unprecedented imbalance between supply and demand for transformers—not the shape-shifting robots, but the crucial devices used on the power grid.

Almost every kilowatt-hour of electricity flows through a distribution transformer. Similar to how a traffic cop manages the flow of vehicles on a road, distribution transformers manage the flow of electricity along the power grid by changing high-voltage electricity from transmission lines into low-voltage electricity before it reaches consumers.

«Distribution transformers are a bedrock component of our energy infrastructure,» National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researcher Killian McKenna said. «But utilities needing to add or replace them are currently facing high prices and long wait times due to supply chain shortages. This has the potential to affect energy accessibility, reliability, affordability—everything.»

To get ahead of the increasing demand, McKenna and his NREL team are leading an effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Electricity and Office of Policy to quantify the long-term demand for distribution transformers.

«A lot of factors can drive the demand for transformers, which makes long-term forecasting especially challenging,» McKenna said. «For instance, load growth from electrification of buildings and transportation, increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, and the need to modernize aging electrical infrastructure can all impact the future demand for transformers.»