The State of Utility Planning, 2025 Q2

Emission reduction % numbers are relative to a 2005 baseline.

This article is one of a series in our review of all integrated resource plans (IRPs) for electric utilities across the United States. We provide analysis of expected load, planned capacity, modeled generation and emissions, and comparison to targets and decarbonization scenarios to evaluate progress toward a zero-carbon energy future. IRPs do not provide a fully accurate prediction of the future, but we focus on them because they reflect the direction that utilities are currently striving for and a set of proposed actions to get there.

 

In the second quarter of 2025, utilities that updated their IRPs increased projected load through 2035 by 2.0 percent and emissions by 4.5 percent.

 

Changing policy, regulation, and market rules, as well as interconnection queues, limitations to capital deployment, and claims of reliability concerns create a difficult environment for utilities to meet load growth with wind and solar generation. Instead, utilities continue to increase plans to build new gas capacity, and in some cases, also delay retirement of existing fossil capacity.

 

This quarter’s updates represent a reminder that the sector is not completely homogenous. Regional differences, and even intraregional differences, were apparent and reflect the importance of company-specific evaluation to enrich the sector-wide story. In subsequent sections, we share detailed analysis of recent changes, their underlying causes, and potential directions of opportunity for improvement.

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