Zero hunger. Affordable and clean energy. Reduced inequalities. These are among the  sustainable development goals that the United Nations has established in pursuit of the long-term well-being of the Earth and its inhabitants. But achieving goals like these—whether by the UN’s 2030 deadline or beyond—requires a detailed understanding of the many complex, interconnected, co-evolving natural, social and technological systems upon which all life depends. Computational modeling methods and tools that incorporate that understanding can help project the likely future of those systems under different scenarios, and thus guide decision-makers in designing action plans that target sustainable development goals.

A case in point is a new approach to modeling the uptake of flood-proofing and other climate adaptation measures promoted by government policymakers to homeowners. A recent study shows that household decisions on such measures are based not only on economic status but also on social pressures and information consumption patterns. Incorporating these additional factors in climate adaptation modeling would give policymakers more precise projections of the likely effectiveness and economic impact of promoting a particular adaptation measure.

This is one of several recent modeling advances showcased in ten research articles and two perspectives appearing in the new Modeling Dynamic Systems for Sustainable Development Special Feature issue of the journal PNAS. These advances could significantly improve researchers’ ability to understand complex nature-society dynamics across decades, and decision-makers’ ability to apply that understanding to design and assess plans that could help meet sustainable development challenges.

“Much recent research in sustainability science has combined data and theory to better understand natural and societal systems—people, technologies, institutions, ecosystems and more—and how they interact,” says Noelle Selin, co-organizer of the special feature and a professor at MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems and Society, and Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. “Innovative modeling approaches allow scientists to make more accurate long-term projections about nature-society interactions and thereby better position decision-makers to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at achieving sustainability.”